Mid-American · 2026 · History
Buffalo Bulls
5-3 (3-1 Mid-American)Last: W 31-24 vs Bowling GreenNext: at Miami (OH)
Pete Lembo · 3rd season · .576 at Buffalo · .547 career since 2011
- Rating
- -14.7125
- Adj Off
- 17.7122
- Adj Def
- 32.4120
- WAP
- -2.2483
Style profile
Style
What the offense does with the ball, and what the defense faces.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Run rate | 54.2%36 | 50.0%70 |
| Plays per game | 74.87 | 66.859 |
| Time of possession | 30:4152 | 30:1861 |
| Yards per pass attempt | 5.0138 | 7.486 |
| Yards per rush | 4.292 | 4.386 |
| Points per game | 22.6106 | 25.481 |
| Points per opportunity | 3.6087 | 3.4167 |
| Starting field position | Own 3058 | Own 2875 |
Efficiency and EPA
Down-by-down quality, measured in predicted points.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.040112 | +0.09483 |
| Adj. EPA per play | -0.019127 | +0.200115 |
| Success rate | 35.8%131 | 39.3%53 |
| Explosiveness | 1.1992 | 1.2269 |
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05194 | +0.02057 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.049122 | +0.23088 |
| Std downs success | 41.2%132 | 48.0%95 |
| Passing downs success | 23.0%132 | 22.2%9 |
Situational
Red zone finishing, ball security, discipline, and money downs.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Red zone TD rate | 42.5%129 | 55.8%74 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50103 | 1.1382 |
| Penalties per game | 5.017 | 7.823 |
| Penalty yards per game | 47.432 | 66.827 |
| 3rd down conversion | 38.6%82 | 36.0%56 |
| 4th down tries per game | 1.6389 | 1.6390 |
| 4th down conversion | 69.2%23 | 38.5%30 |
Rank out of 138 FBS teams. Green is good for the team, red is bad. Blue only orients neutral traits like tempo and run rate.
Schedule and resultsProjected 6.8-5.2
| Date | Opponent | Result / projection | WAP | Off EPA | Def EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3Wk 1 | UAlbany(FCS) | W21-17 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.06 |
| Sep 12Wk 2 | @109  Florida International | L20-33 | -0.94 | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| Sep 19Wk 3 | @33  Penn State | L13-55 | -0.63 | -0.12 | +0.40 |
| Sep 26Wk 4 | Robert Morris(FCS) | W31-28 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| Oct 3Wk 5 | 74  Western Michigan | L17-20 | -0.91 | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Oct 10Wk 6 | @62  Toledo | W23-8 | +0.21 | +0.08 | +0.09 |
| Oct 17Wk 7 | 129  Massachusetts | W25-18 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| Oct 24Wk 8 | 131  Bowling Green | W31-24 | +0.01 | +0.21 | +0.16 |
| Nov 3Wk 10 | @105  Miami (OH) | +8.729% | +0.07 | — | — |
| Nov 11Wk 11 | @133  Ball State | -1.053% | +0.02 | — | — |
| Nov 18Wk 12 | 116  Central Michigan | -0.451% | +0.02 | — | — |
| Nov 27Wk 13 | @132  Akron | -0.652% | +0.02 | — | — |
Unplayed games show the projected spread from this team's view (negative = favored) and its win probability, from the ratings; their WAP is what a win would be worth. How the ratings work.
Key players
Sorted by how much of the offense runs through them. Bold rows are the primary option at each spot; the shade tracks their share.
Offense
Quarterbacks
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | C/A | Cmp% | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Jason WrightFR | 75% | 92/185 | 49.7% | 987 | 5.3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16Elijah HolmesFR | 25% | 35/61 | 57.4% | 253 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 |
Running backs
Share of rushes| Player | Share | Car | Yds | Y/C | TD | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4Messiah BurchFR | 45% | 151 | 845 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 |
| 0Nino HillFR | 19% | 63 | 202 | 3.2 | 2 | 0 |
| 24James McNeil Jr.FR | 8% | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 1 | 0 |
| 25Terrance Shelton Jr.FR | 7% | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
Receivers
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6Chance MorrowWR FR | 17% | 41 | 483 | 11.8 | 6 |
| 5Clint WalkerTE FR | 9% | 22 | 195 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 2Jaylen AndrewsWR FR | 7% | 17 | 147 | 8.6 | 0 |
| 11Dwayne Early Jr.WR FR | 6% | 15 | 192 | 12.8 | 0 |
| 3Patrick Clacks IIIWR FR | 4% | 9 | 103 | 11.4 | 1 |
Defense
Defensive line
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | Hur | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97Christopher ClimesDL FR | 23 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17Logan GoodwinEDGE FR | 20 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 9 | 1 |
| 11Will ClarkEDGE FR | 17 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 2 |
| 99Cornell EvansDT FR | 15 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 88Rex StinchcombDL FR | 15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15Sedrick VessahEDGE FR | 14 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 1 |
Linebackers
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saveon BrownLB FR | 67 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 2Stevie BraceyLB FR | 34 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 44Zach BergmannLB FR | 29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 |
| 33Jordan OwensLB FR | 25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 21Bradley Ilunga-BisseleleLB FR | 12 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
Defensive backs
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | PD | INT | TFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6Miles GreerS FR | 51 | 3 | 1 | 3.0 |
| 4Ronnell DavisS FR | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 7John KeoughS FR | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 5Mikey CrawfordCB FR | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 0Kobi BlackwellCB FR | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2.0 |
| 9Keontez BradleyCB FR | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 23Xavier LeonardS FR | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
Special teams
Kickers
By kicks attempted| Player | FG | FG% | Long | XP | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31Oliver HautanenFR | 13/17 | 76% | 51 | 18/18 | 57 |
Punters
By punts| Player | Punts | Avg | Long | In 20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90Ethan StumpfFR | 47 | 45.4 | 72 | 17 | 6 |