North Carolina Tar Heels
4-2 (2-1 ACC)Last: W 24-20 at DukeNext: vs Syracuse
Bill Belichick · 2nd season · .444 at North Carolina · .444 career since 2025
- Rating
- +3.850
- Adj Off
- 26.373
- Adj Def
- 22.435
- WAP
- -0.1628
Style profile
Style
What the offense does with the ball, and what the defense faces.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Run rate | 48.4%85 | 47.7%92 |
| Plays per game | 58.5138 | 73.78 |
| Time of possession | 26:58129 | 33:029 |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.953 | 6.125 |
| Yards per rush | 3.8108 | 3.963 |
| Points per game | 23.5100 | 19.230 |
| Points per opportunity | 3.9758 | 3.0833 |
| Starting field position | Own 2977 | Own 31126 |
Efficiency and EPA
Down-by-down quality, measured in predicted points.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09989 | +0.02447 |
| Adj. EPA per play | +0.13251 | +0.05943 |
| Success rate | 44.4%58 | 42.5%96 |
| Explosiveness | 1.11126 | 1.033 |
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.012110 | +0.03065 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23368 | +0.08542 |
| Std downs success | 51.0%45 | 50.3%117 |
| Passing downs success | 30.7%74 | 25.0%25 |
Situational
Red zone finishing, ball security, discipline, and money downs.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Red zone TD rate | 64.3%56 | 52.2%60 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67111 | 1.3348 |
| Penalties per game | 4.27 | 6.378 |
| Penalty yards per game | 33.75 | 53.876 |
| 3rd down conversion | 37.3%88 | 43.3%116 |
| 4th down tries per game | 1.17116 | 3.173 |
| 4th down conversion | 71.4%18 | 36.8%25 |
Rank out of 138 FBS teams. Green is good for the team, red is bad. Blue only orients neutral traits like tempo and run rate.
Schedule and resultsProjected 6.9-5.1
| Date | Opponent | Result / projection | WAP | Off EPA | Def EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29Wk 1 | N44  TCU | W15-10 | +0.24 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| Sep 12Wk 2 | East Tennessee State(FCS) | W35-3 | 0.00 | +0.50 | -0.17 |
| Sep 19Wk 3 | @45  Clemson | L20-28 | -0.71 | -0.08 | +0.19 |
| Oct 3Wk 5 | 2  Notre Dame#4 | L26-37 | -0.32 | +0.17 | +0.27 |
| Oct 10Wk 6 | @41  Pittsburgh | W21-17 | +0.34 | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| Oct 17Wk 7 | @47  Duke | W24-20 | +0.28 | +0.12 | +0.08 |
| Oct 24Wk 8 | 72  Syracuse | -7.669% | +0.10 | — | — |
| Oct 31Wk 9 | 4  Miami#1 | +18.013% | +0.63 | — | — |
| Nov 7Wk 10 | @83  UConn | -4.361% | +0.14 | — | — |
| Nov 14Wk 11 | 28  Louisville | +3.741% | +0.28 | — | — |
| Nov 21Wk 12 | @58  Virginia | +1.646% | +0.23 | — | — |
| Nov 28Wk 13 | 55  NC State | -3.960% | +0.14 | — | — |
Unplayed games show the projected spread from this team's view (negative = favored) and its win probability, from the ratings; their WAP is what a win would be worth. How the ratings work.
Key players
Sorted by how much of the offense runs through them. Bold rows are the primary option at each spot; the shade tracks their share.
Offense
Quarterbacks
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | C/A | Cmp% | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9Billy EdwardsFR | 96% | 94/157 | 59.9% | 1259 | 8.0 | 9 | 5 |
| 8Miles O'NeillFR | 4% | 3/6 | 50.0% | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 |
Running backs
Share of rushes| Player | Share | Car | Yds | Y/C | TD | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Benjamin HallFR | 31% | 57 | 283 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| 0Demon JuneFR | 27% | 50 | 192 | 3.8 | 6 | 1 |
| 27Jaylen McGillFR | 16% | 30 | 172 | 5.7 | 2 | 1 |
Receivers
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jordan ShippWR FR | 20% | 33 | 441 | 13.4 | 1 |
| 45Jelani ThurmanTE FR | 16% | 26 | 314 | 12.1 | 4 |
| 2Trech KekahunaWR FR | 6% | 10 | 129 | 12.9 | 0 |
| 14C.J. SadlerWR FR | 5% | 8 | 113 | 14.1 | 0 |
| 84Shamar EasterTE FR | 4% | 7 | 137 | 19.6 | 2 |
Defense
Defensive line
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | Hur | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91Leroy JacksonDL FR | 37 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 90Xavier LewisDL FR | 31 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3 | 1 |
| 11Jaylen HarveyDL FR | 18 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 0Isaiah JohnsonDL FR | 12 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 96Nicco MaggioDL FR | 10 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5Donovan HoiletteDL FR | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Linebackers
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15Derek McdonaldLB FR | 55 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10Peyton SeelmannLB FR | 53 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
| 8Jonathan AgumaduLB FR | 27 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 54Timir Hickman-CollinsLB FR | 14 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 12Calvin ThomasLB FR | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Defensive backs
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | PD | INT | TFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gregory SmithDB FR | 39 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 18Jaiden PattersonDB FR | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7Peyton WatersDB FR | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2Kaleb CostDB FR | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 21Kenton Dopson IIIDB FR | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| 16Coleman BrysonDB FR | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6Tre MillerDB FR | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 |
Special teams
Kickers
By kicks attempted| Player | FG | FG% | Long | XP | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92Aeron BurrellFR | 4/7 | 57% | 33 | 8/8 | 20 |
| 90Rece VerhoffFR | 1/1 | 100% | 28 | 8/9 | 11 |
Punters
By punts| Player | Punts | Avg | Long | In 20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92Aeron BurrellFR | 21 | 42.8 | 60 | 8 | 0 |